Emerging Markets: not bad value
Emerging markets have considerable long term potential, which is unchallengeable. Here are just a couple of snippets:
- the United States economy produces $46,000 per head of population. The equivalent figure for China is just $6,700.
- 40% of the Chinese working population are farmers - the equivalent in the US is 0.7%.
In terms of global stock market indices, emerging markets represent just 13% of the total, though they account for 35-40% of the global economy - yet most people don’t even have 13% of their portfolios in emerging markets.
But what about value? Are their markets already expensive? Surprisingly not. JP Morgan reckon that they are valued some way below their average level, perhaps 20% below. And that takes no account of possible bubble conditions when valuations would head way above such averages.
The spotlight is understandably mostly on China, but there is so much more. To underpin their renaissance, and rescue tens of millions from abject poverty, the Indian government plans to dramatically increase infrastructure spending. As China matures in the years ahead, the baton is being passed to India, Brazil, Indonesia, etc.
There are three ways to exploit this potential.
- global emerging market funds, inherently diversified
- single country funds, obviously more risky but with greater potential
- the global businesses supplying the growing needs of emerging markets
Looking at the latter, year after year we have highlighted M&G Global Basics, what we called the thinking mans way to exploit the potential of emerging markets. To take advantage of the growing wealth of developing countries the fund bought those companies whose fortunes would benefit most - businesses as basic as Unilever, Colgate-Palmolive, Cussons.
This fund has gained 250%+ over the last 10 years, a multiple of 7 times more than the FTSE 100 index. Of course it will suffer in the short term if China should wobble, but this remains a strong long term buy. A high risk fund.
(Taken from TopFunds Guide January 2011)